It amuses me that most of the people calling for the right to ‘unite’ to ensure a ‘right wing’ government seem to be former Conservative supporters who defected to Reform UK.
I have friends - former Conservative politicians, prospective parliamentary candidates, and party activists - who are now members of Reform and, to be fair, none of them seem to regret their decision.
Nevertheless, I think they’re fighting a battle that was effectively lost when Kemi Badenoch was elected leader of the Conservative Party and set about changing the party from the dispirited rabble she inherited. That transformation is far from complete, and probably needs an infusion of new talent because both the parliamentary party and the shadow cabinet do seem a little threadbare in that regard, but I genuinely believe that Badenoch has cooked Reform’s goose.
It’s possible, even likely, that the Tories’ gradual resurgence under Badenoch won’t be enough to win the next election, but if that’s the case I hope her colleagues will continue to support her as party leader because everything about her suggests a strong and competent prime minister in waiting. The only issue is the rest of her party, but that’s another matter.
Yes, the Tories are hardly setting the political world alight but that was to be expected after 14 years in office and one of their worst election results ever. Nevertheless the Conservatives’ poll rating is going in only one direction - up. Support for Reform, meanwhile, appears to have peaked at 30% and is currently averaging less than 25% in most polls, consistently below Labour (which is still enjoying some Burnham bounce) and, in some polls, less than the Conservatives. In fact, support for Reform has been falling for months so why would Badenoch even consider ‘uniting the right’ by entering into some sort of pact with a party whose leadership vowed to “destroy” the Conservative Party?
As things stand it’s unlikely the Tories will win the next election with a majority, but it’s not impossible the party could have the most MPs and be invited to form a minority government, although in the event of a hung parliament a more likely outcome is a Labour/Lib Dem pact or coalition. If the Tories found themselves forming a minority government it would probably be necessary to have some sort of confidence and supply agreement with Reform, but a formal coalition is surely unthinkable. Can you imagine a Cabinet with ego warriors like Nigel Farage and Robert Jenrick butting heads with Badenoch while plotting behind her back? It wouldn’t work.
For what it’s worth, my own view is that, with very few exceptions (Jacob Rees-Mogg comes to mind), the people shouting loudest about ‘uniting the right’ are former Tories who joined Reform and probably have leavers’ remorse because they secretly know they backed the wrong horse and it would be too humiliating to admit it. Personally I dislike flip-floppers and glory hunters who only joined Reform when the party was leading the polls, so I hope that any attempt by such people to rejoin the Conservative Party will be rejected. Ordinary voters are a different matter because everyone is entitled to change their mind about who they vote for so Badenoch is right to encourage former Tory voters who switched to Reform to come “home”.
My guess, assuming Burnham doesn’t call an early election (which is probably a rash assumption, given his flip-flopping on other issues), is that Labour and the Conservatives will start the next election campaign with Labour ahead in the polls but, with a margin of error of 3%, it may be too close to predict the result. Reform, I anticipate, will have slipped to a relatively distant third behind the Conservatives, enough to split the right wing vote in many constituencies, but if the choice appears to be binary – a Tory government under Kemi Badenoch or a Labour government under Andy Burnham – I suspect that many former Tory voters will abandon Reform and vote Conservative.
But there’s another issue and it’s this. Is Reform really a ‘right wing’ party that supports free enterprise and an entrepreneurial capitalist economy? I’m not so sure. To me the party may be ‘right wing’ on some issues, but evidence suggests that it’s also shamelessly opportunistic and will happily support state intervention (for example) if they think there may be votes in it.
There is no question in my mind that Kemi Badenoch is the leader the right needs – far less divisive than Farage but clear and strong in her beliefs so you may disagree with her on some issues but everyone will know exactly where she stands. And more often than not she will speak for the majority. (Take, for example, her no-nonsense opposition to British reparations for slavery.)
Finally, you’ll notice I haven’t mentioned Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain whose poll rating has risen to 8%, not enough to win any seats outside Great Yarmouth where Lowe is the sitting MP with a much higher poll rating, but enough to harm Reform’s chances in many other constituencies. The problem with Restore is that, while I might support some policies, others leave me cold. And as for some of the party’s more extreme ‘right wing’ supporters, I would never in a million years want to be associated with them so, for me, any sort of alliance should be a non-starter.
In my view, only one person among our current political class has any hope of uniting the right and becoming prime minister and that’s Kemi Badenoch. And that means holding your nose (if you are a disillusioned former Tory) and voting for the Conservative Party.
See: Is it time for the right to unite? (Andrew Allison, Conservative Home)
