The price of prohibition
To mark the start of the committee stage of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in the House of Lords this week, Forest has published a new paper, The Price of Prohibition.
Written by Rob Lyons, former deputy editor of Spiked and author of several Forest reports, the 4,000-word essay addresses the possible impact of a generational tobacco ban on retail crime and the black market, and the potential for the type of tobacco turf wars we have witnessed in Australia as a result of punitive taxation and restrictions on the sale of vapes.
Today sees second of six scheduled committee sessions takes place in the Lords. The first, on Monday, saw several spirited attacks on the Government’s plan to raise the age of sale by one year every year.
Critics included Lord Moylan, Baroness Meyer, and Baroness Fox, director of the Academy of Ideas whose latest Substack (Freedom goes up in smoke – again) highlighted both the bill and Rob’s paper. ‘The worry is that ever-greater steps towards prohibition not only restrict our choices but also threaten to bring all the familiar side effects of prohibition: illegal sales, declining tax revenues and, most worryingly, violence and intimidation. This is already happening in Australia thanks to high taxation. Do we really want that here, too?’
Rob’s paper is called The Price of Prohibition and it’s available online, but here’s my foreword:
The Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which is currently progressing through Parliament, includes what is without doubt the most misguided and illiberal anti-smoking measure since the workplace smoking ban outlawed smoking in every pub and private members’ club almost 20 years ago.
At least smokers had the option of going outside to smoke, and some proprietors went to the trouble of providingcomfortable outdoor smoking areas. But if parliamentarians support the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in its present guise, the age of sale of tobacco will rise by one year every year until no adult, whatever their age, will be permitted to legally purchase any tobacco product in the United Kingdom.
In the meantime, the immediate target of the policy are young adults who are old enough to drive a car, join the army, purchase alcohol, AND VOTE, but will not be considered old enough to buy tobacco. (The irony, of course, is that the government responsible for the bill also wants to lower the voting age to 16, which would allow children aged 16 and 17 to vote in the next general election.)
As this paper by Rob Lyons suggests, the impact of a generational sales ban could be far reaching, and not in a positive way. Far from achieving the government’s target of a smoke-free society by 2030, a generational ban is certain to fuel the black market and put even more money into the hands of criminal gangs and other illicit traders.
The evidence from the tobacco turf war that is raging in Australia should be a warning to the UK government, but tobacco control is no longer about public health. It’s an ideology and, in the war on tobacco, law-abiding consumers and retailers are collateral damage.
Interestingly, the public shows little enthusiasm for the Tobacco and Vapes Bill. A recent poll ranked it ninth out of ten in terms of importance when rated against other government bills progressing though parliament. Likewise, when asked to rate government priorities, ‘tackling smoking’ came last in a list of ten issues presented to respondents. Fewer than two in five (39%) considered the issue important, compared to the 88% who said the government should improve the health service, address the cost of living (87%), or care for the elderly (87%).
The bill follows a long list of anti-smoking legislation that includes not only the workplace smoking ban, but subsequent legislation such as the tobacco display ban, plain packaging, and the ban on flavoured tobacco (most notably, menthol cigarettes).
Enough is enough. The gen ban is a desperate attempt to achieve the smoke-free target that was announced at the fag end of Theresa May’s disastrous period as prime minister. Ironically, the actual policy was a further act of desperation by another Tory prime minister, Rishi Sunak, who produced it, like a rabbit from a hat, during his speech at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester in October 2023. As we said at the time:
“Prohibiting the sale of cigarettes to future generations of adults won't stop people smoking. It will simply drive the sale of cigarettes underground and into the hands of criminal gangs. Smoking rates have been falling for decades. The idea that any government would prioritise tackling smoking at a time when the country faces far more important challenges at home and abroad is frankly obscene.”
That remains our position today. We therefore urge the current Labour government, even at this late stage, to abandon the generational ban in favour of a more pragmatic, less idealistic, approach to tobacco control that could have significant consequences for liberty and personal responsibility.
The sixth and final meeting of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill committee in the Lords is on November 17. If there are any significant developments between now and then I’ll let you know, but don’t hold your breath.
The Price of Prohibition: How the Tobacco and Vapes Bill could trigger a bigger black market, more retail crime, and violent turf wars by Rob Lyons, October 2025
