Finding neverland

Last week the Office for National Statistics published the results of their latest survey on smoking habits in UK.

If you remember, I enquired about the publication date (which varies considerably each year) a few weeks ago.

I got an instant reply - October 1 - and these are the main points:

• Around 6.0 million people aged 18 years and over (11.9%) smoked cigarettes in the UK in 2023; this is the lowest proportion of current smokers since records began in 2011, based on our estimates from the Annual Population Survey (APS).

• Those aged 25 to 34 years had the highest proportion of current smokers (14.0%) in the UK in 2023.

• Those aged 18 to 24 years have had the largest reduction in smoking prevalence (15.9 percentage points) between 2011 (25.7%) and 2023 (9.8%).

• Around 5.1 million adults aged 16 years and over (9.8%) currently use an e-cigarette daily or occasionally in Great Britain in 2023, based on the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN).

• E-cigarette use was highest among people aged 16 to 24 years in Great Britain, with 15.8% using e-cigarettes either daily or occasionally.

What I like about the ONS is that they stick to the data and there is no obvious attempt to spin the results.

Nor do they add their own partisan commentary, unlike a lot of ‘scientific’ studies whose researchers often conclude their reports by demanding further government action, in the manner of political activists.

The ONS, in contrast, does seem fairly impartial, so it may just be coincidence that the publication of the 2023 survey coincided with Hazel Cheeseman’s first day as the new chief executive of ASH.

It meant that her reign got off to a positive start and having presumably been tipped off in advance (if not by the ONS then a journalist), she was quoted in several reports:

“Today’s figures are further proof that the country is ready to be smokefree” although “there is still much to be done”.

Of course, no ASH press release would be complete without some hand-wringing and on this occasion it concerned the number of never smokers the ONS had identified as having taken up vaping.

According to Prof Nick Hopkinson, chairman of ASH:

“Vaping has helped millions of adults quit smoking and is much less harmful than smoking. However, it is not risk-free and high levels of use among young people and growing use among never smokers is a concern.

“The government must get its Tobacco and Vapes Bill into law as soon as possible, to provide a tough regulatory framework to control the marketing and sale of e-cigarettes. We need to reinforce the role of vaping as a tool to stop smoking, not a lifestyle accessory.”

If it’s true that one million never smokers have started vaping in the UK, it puts the vaping industry in an awkward position because I’ve lost count of the number of times industry spokesmen have insisted that never smokers should never vape.

As I’ve said many, many times, what’s wrong with adults who have never been smokers taking up vaping?

If the product is as safe as they say it is (and based on current evidence I’ve no reason to question it), the only issue concerns addiction to nicotine - and nicotine, as we keep being told, is no more harmful than caffeine so, again, what’s the problem?

Instead, by repeatedly telling the world that only smokers and former smokers should vape, what message does that send out?

I’ll tell you. It tells you vapes are less harmful than cigarettes but not safe enough to risk non-smokers getting hooked on them.

It also sends the message that e-cigarettes are a smoking cessation tool (boring!), not an enjoyable recreational product in their own right.

So, having insisted (and established in people’s minds) that never smokers should never vape, how should the vaping industry react to the news that one million never smokers are now vaping?

Should they keep their heads down and say nothing, or should they join forces with government and the tobacco control industry whose position is the same - never smokers should never vape.

That might work in the short-term, but the problem is this. The long-term goal of ‘public health’ campaigners like ASH is very clear. All recreational use of nicotine is bad and must be discouraged and then eradicated.

By allying themselves with negative public health messaging on vapes now, the vaping industry is helping to sow the seeds for an all out assault on all future nicotine consumption.

Alternatively, if you take the Forest approach - that few things are without risk and as adults we should be allowed to enjoy ourselves and take recreational risks as long as they don’t harm others - you are at least arguing from a consistent ideological position.

Moreover, our position still holds regardless of whether evidence is eventually found that vaping is significantly more harmful than the current evidence suggests.

I know that many vaping advocates can’t or don’t want to contemplate this eventuality, but at that point at least we will be able to use same argument we have always used to defend smoking:

Educate people (adults and children) about the health risks of smoking and vaping, but thereafter leave adults (18+) to make their own decisions without excessive restrictions or social engineering.

But what if your only argument in favour of vaping is that it is 95 per cent less harmful than smoking, as Public Health England declared in 2015?

What if the evidence changes and the successors to PHE amend that estimate to 75 or 50 per cent less harmful than smoking?

Given the alleged harms attributed to smoking, even a reduced risk would represent a significant risk.

In short, having made the case for vaping on a single issue - health - what happens if and when that rug is pulled from under you?

At least we can fall back on those perennials - freedom of choice and personal responsibility. But what will vaping advocates do?

Incidentally, I couldn’t help notice how the usual suspects in some centre right think tanks celebrated the fact that smoking rates have continued to fall as more smokers switch to vaping.

Robert Colvile, for example, is director of the Centre for Policy Studies. Posting on X last week, he wrote:

The @ONS has published its latest stats on smoking. And it's good news! In 2023, smoking fell to the lowest level on record in every part of the UK.

As I've said before, the public health priority should be getting the 12% of the population who still smoke to quit, and demonising vaping absolutely doesn't help with that.

It's a bit out of date but the official review in 2015 concluded that vaping was 95% less harmful than smoking, but warned that huge numbers of smokers don't know that. So I think the thing to worry about overwhelmingly is the people who are still smoking.

Yes, a world where eg 100% of us are vaping is not a good one - it is still damaging to your health! But on any realistic scenario it's cutting smoking that matters.

‘The public health priority should be getting the 12% of the population who still smoke to quit.’ Seriously, Robert? You sound just like Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty (and that’s not a compliment)!

While I recognise that vaping is one of the two major reasons why smoking rates have fallen in the UK since 2011, some of our free market and centre right ‘friends’ conveniently ignore the other - the punitive rates of tax on tobacco that have forced many smokers to quit or switch to a cheaper source of nicotine (vapes).

Furthermore, smoking bans, while nothing like as effective as taxation as a form of social engineering, have clearly ‘encouraged’ many smokers to become dual users so they can consume nicotine in places where they are barred from smoking.

Unfortunately, many free market campaigners fail to acknowledge that part of the vaping success story has been achieved through punitive taxation (on tobacco) and smoking bans.

Or perhaps they are so blinded by hubris they just don’t care.

See: Adult smoking habits in the UK: 2023 (ONS)