Even non-smokers think buying cigarettes from the black market is "understandable"

It's impossible to escape Covid-related stories in Ireland today.

As a result a poll commissioned by Forest Ireland ahead of next week's Budget (see previous post) has gone largely unreported, but that's OK. There's more than one way to get our message across to government.

For the record, here's what iReach, a market research company, found:

• 70% of adults (including 67% of non-smokers) say purchasing cigarettes from the black market or other countries is 'understandable' given the high cost of legal tobacco in Ireland

• Only one in five (20%) found it not understandable.

• 65% think the current rate of tobacco duty – almost 80% on an average pack of cigarettes in Ireland – is ‘too high’, a ‘little high’ or ‘about right’

• only one in four (25%) think tobacco duty is ‘too low’ or a 'little low'

Forest Ireland is urging the Irish government to reject calls to increase the tax on tobacco.

Spokesman John Mallon said: "A further tax hike will encourage even more smokers to buy tobacco abroad or on the black market because there is very little stigma associated with such transactions.

“For most people, including non-smokers, it is perfectly understandable given the punitive level of tobacco duty in this country.”

He added: “The price of tobacco bought legally in Ireland is among the highest in the world. This is nothing to be proud of.

“Increasing tobacco duty again will further discriminate against the poor and those who are just about managing.

"We urge the government to take into account public opinion, freeze tobacco duty, and give smokers a break.”

We also asked respondents to say who they would vote for if there was an election tomorrow.

• 29% of all adults would vote for Fine Gael, followed by Sinn Féin at 25% and Fianna Fáil at 13%

For the benefit of non-Irish readers, the Irish government is currently a coalition consisting of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin is leader of Fianna Fáil and former Taoiseach Leo Veradkar (now the Tánaiste or deputy prime minister) is leader of Fine Gael.

Interestingly, support for Sinn Féin was significantly higher among smokers. According to iReach:

• 34% of smokers would vote for Sinn Féin, 26% for Fine Gael and 14% for Fianna Fáil

I won't speculate just now why that might be the case, but it's something we intend to examine further.

In the meantime here's the full press release – Poll: 70% of adults in Ireland say buying cigarettes from the black market or abroad is "understandable".

The Irish Sun has a report – 'It's OK to buy cigs on black market' – but it's in the print edition, not online.

PS. Regarding the black market question, we asked a very similar question in a 2016 UK poll conducted by Populus.

In response to the question, 'Do you believe that purchasing illegal tobacco, which is often much cheaper than legal tobacco, is an understandable response to high tobacco product prices?', the result was:

NET: Understandable 71%
Yes, very understandable 27%
Yes, somewhat understandable 43%
Not very understandable 9%
Not at all understandable 9%
NET: Not understandable 18%
Don’t know 12%

As you can see, the response was almost identical to that in Ireland four years later.