Smoking rates: figures ignore casual smokers
Following publication of research in Australia, anti-smoking campaigners are claiming that a "dramatic" 15 per cent decline in smoking rates is a result of plain packaging.
Look closely however and the figures (15.1 down to 12.8 per cent) relate to a three-year period from 2010 to December 2013.
Plain packaging was introduced in December 2012 but that seems to have escaped many commenters and journalists, deliberately or otherwise.
Truth is there was a whopping 25 per cent excise hike in Australia in 2010 (followed by a further 12.5 per cent increase on December 1, 2013 which will probably have an impact on the next set of figures).
We know smokers are sensitive to price increases (hence the flourishing black market trade in tobacco) so it seems reasonable to conclude that cost, not plain packaging, has been the primary influence on smoking rates in Australia over the last few years.
But wait. While a 15 per cent reduction in smoking rates may sound "dramatic", over three years it simply reflects an historical trend and is no more newsworthy than a similar decline in smoking rates in the UK which doesn't have standardised packs. Not yet, anyway.
For further reading check out this report in the FT: Australia smoking rates tumble after plain packaging shift.
See also BAT Australia's response (Smoking rates underestimated) which includes the interesting point that the Australian survey ignores casual smokers who represent one in five consumers.
Include these smokers and the smoking rate in Australia jumps to 16.5 per cent of the population.
I suspect too that many smokers simply don't admit to smoking. Here's some anecdotal evidence.
On Tuesday night at The Freedom Dinner we commissioned Dan Donovan to take photographs of guests, as we always do. (Click here for the results.)
Yesterday Dan passed on the remarkable information that several guests at the Forest Freedom Dinner (my emphasis) asked him not to take pictures of them smoking!!!!
Why, I don't know. It may be guilt or fear that in today's highly judgemental society they may be discriminated against (passed over for promotion, perhaps) or vilified in some other way.
The simple fact is this: there is a significant number of people out there who are probably casual smokers and don't want anyone, other than their immediate friends, to know about it.
So they ask the photographer at a smoker-friendly event not to take pictures of them smoking. (Note: this is the first time it's happened at a Forest event, which is why Dan mentioned it, so it's a new phenomenon.)
Likewise, when asked by researchers 'Do you smoke?', what do you think their likely response is?
I suspect there are hundreds of thousands - possibly millions - of casual smokers who go under the radar because they keep it to themselves.
What an extraordinary state of affairs.
PS. Re the Australian story I also recommend this post by Chris Snowdon, Dogs bark, cows moo, ASH lies, which I will come back to in my next post.