Statistics for dummies
On Monday I reported that "experts" from Fresh (Smokefree North West) were in Ireland, advising the locals on how to run a tobacco control programme.
It turned out they were there to receive an award from the Irish Cancer Society.
This morning Fresh issued "new figures" that "show for the first time the true cost of smoking to the North East in lives lost, illness and the toll of finances - costing the region over £210 million pounds every year".
I am tempted to publish the press release in full because it's a mass of calculations and statistics. On reflection I'll spare you the whole thing but if you really want to read it for yourself go to the Fresh website where you will find a press release headlined Pound for pound our biggest killer.
Here's a taste:
New figures released today by Fresh help to show for the first time the true cost of smoking to the North East in lives lost, illness and the toll of finances - costing the region over £210million pounds every year.
The statistics from Fresh in partnership with Brunel University, combined with existing figures from the North East Public Health Observatory reveal the toll smoking inflicts in lives lost, illness and the resulting cost on the NHS, local authorities and private business.
The figures are localised to each local authority to enable MPs, councillors, local authorities and GPs to see the full scale of the problem still facing the region.
Despite the North East having the largest drop in smoking in England over the past few years, smoking-related diseases still cost the NHS in the North East around £105million every year, with more than:
* £53million spent on over 27,000 smoking-related hospital admissions each year
* Over £17.9million in outpatient appointments annually
* Over £19.5million spent on GP consultations annually
* Over £12.6million in prescription costs annually
* Nearly £1.9million in nurse consultations annually.
It is not just the NHS and taxpayers who bear the cost of smoking. Smoking is estimated to cost employers in the North East around £70 million a year, with 335,000 days lost each year to increased absenteeism due to smoking. Absenteeism alone is estimated to cost employers around £34.5 million per year, with the remaining losses due to smoking breaks.
In addition, the effects of passive smoking cost the North East around £35.9million each year, with by far the biggest burden falling on children exposed to the dangers of second hand smoke.
Deaths from smoking
Nearly one in five of all deaths among adults over 35 are as a result of smoking, causing around 4,211 deaths in the North East each year according to latest NHS estimates. Smoking causes almost 90 per cent of deaths from lung cancer, around 80 per cent of deaths from COPD and around 17 per cent of deaths from heart disease.
That breaks down every year in the North East to:
* 538 deaths from COPD
* 593 deaths from heart disease
* 848 deaths from lung cancer
* 183 deaths from stroke
* 2056 deaths from other diseases such respiratory disease and cancers of the oesophagus, kidney, throat, bladder and stomach.
Disease from smoking
If smoking levels remain unchanged, the North East will experience an ongoing burden to the NHS from new cases of smoking related disease being diagnosed each year.
Disease cases each year over next decade in the North East if smoking rates remain the same:
* Lung cancer 1,785
* Coronary heart disease 48,374
* COPD 10,462
* Heart attacks 20,974
* Strokes 12,586
And on and on it goes.
Cost to the NHS
The overall cost of smoking-related hospital admissions in Middlesbrough alone is calculated to be £3.09 million per year. Smoking is also estimated to cost Middlesbrough over £1.29 million per year in terms of additional GP consultations. Overall, smoking related disease in Middlesbrough is estimated to cost the NHS £6.5 million per year.
Similar figures are trotted out for Stockton, Darlington and Redcar & Cleveland. Someone, somewhere, has been very busy with their calculator. (The report, I should mention, was conducted "in partnership with Brunel University".)
We are also told that:
Smoking during pregnancy poses a significant health risk to both mother and unborn child. According to latest 2010/11 end of year figures, 579 Middlesbrough women were recorded as smoking at the time they gave birth. This equates to 27.2% of all maternities within the locality so far this year. This figure is significantly higher than the North East average (21.1%), and twice the national average (13.5%).
Now, I'm not advocating smoking during pregnancy but just because "579 Middlesbrough women were recorded as smoking at the time they gave birth" isn't, in itself, evidence that their babies have suffered as a result. It's a just a statistic that will be used to demonise pregnant mothers who smoke and justify the use of even more taxpayers' money to campaign against it.
Talking of which, there is a huge emphasis on the cost to the taxpayer of smoking-related diseases. I imagine this will become something of a mantra over the next few years. How many of those "smoking-related" illnesses, however, were a direct result of smoking? Unless it is certain that other factors (diet, lack of exercise or genetics, for example) were not involved, it is quite wrong to point the finger of blame exclusively at smoking.
Anyway, I shall be talking about the report on BBC Radio Tees at 9.45.
The Northern Echo has the story here:
£210m - the cost of smoking in the North-East